Intel and AMD will dominate the server market, and ARM will not be competitive until 2023
The penetration rate of Intel’s third-generation Xeon Scalable’Ice Lake-SP’ processors will exceed 30% by the end of the year, which is a typical transition rate of server CPUs, and x86 processors don’t have to worry about coming from Arm servers until 2023. It is estimated Trend forceThe vast majority of servers shipped this year will be based on Intel’s second-generation Xeon Scalable “Cascade Lake” processors. At the same time, AMD is expected to seize 15% of the global server market share in 2022.
TrendForce said that despite the efforts of companies such as Amazon, Ampere and Marvell, due to the relatively small scale of customer demand, Arm-based server system-on-chip (SoC) will still occupy 3% of the market share.
According to analysts, Arm-based custom servers will not be able to compete with x86 machines until at least 2023, so both AMD and Intel will dominate the lucrative market in the next few years.
Ice Lake-SP and Milan will be widely adopted in the third quarter
Intel began to sell its Xeon Scalable “Ice Lake-SP” processors in limited quantities in the fourth quarter of 2020. At that time, these CPUs Granted PRQ statusThen, the company increased production in the first quarter of 2021, and officially launched these chips in batches in the second quarter. Intel’s rival AMD launched its EPYC’Milan’ processor in mid-March.
TrendForce said that server manufacturers only began to widely adopt Intel’s Ice Lake-SP and AMD’s Milan processors in the third quarter. However, analysts believe that the penetration rate of Intel’s latest server platform codenamed Whitley is expected to be typical, so by the end of this year, these CPUs may control 30% of the market share. In contrast, AMD will continue to gain share at the expense of Intel, so its server market share will reach 15% sometime in 2022.
The next-generation server platform will be launched in the second quarter of 2022
Analysts’ expectations for AMD’s next-generation EPYC’Genoa’ platform and Intel’s Eagle Stream platform (based on Sapphire Rapids processor) More fun.
TrendForce expects AMD to launch its EPYC’Genoa’ CPU in the second quarter of 2021. These chips will use the company’s new Zen 4 micro-architecture and will support DDR5 memory, which will improve its performance. These processors are manufactured using one of TSMC’s N5 manufacturing technologies. Because of the new design of Genoa processors, they will use brand new sockets and platforms, so their uphill will take time.
TrendForce predicts that Intel’s Sapphire Rapids will enter the PRQ phase sometime in the fourth quarter of 2021. Shipments will begin in the first quarter of 2022 and will be officially released in the second quarter of 2022. Intel has confirmed this. Intel’s Eagle Stream and Sapphire Rapids will not only significantly improve performance by adding more CPU cores and on-board HBM2E cache, but will also introduce a number of new technologies, including DDR5 memory, next-generation Optane persistent memory modules, and PCIe 5.0 interface CXL (Compute Express Link) protocol is above.
The PCIe Gen 5 interface has a data transfer rate of 32 GT/s and a bidirectional maximum bandwidth of up to 63 GB/s, with more than 16 channels, which is especially useful for high-performance SSDs. Such drives will fundamentally change the performance of servers in storage-intensive workloads.
Given all the innovations that Intel’s fourth-generation Xeon Scalable (or whatever its official name) will bring, it will be interesting to see how quickly the market will adopt the new Eagle Stream platform. At the same time, before the launch of the platform, Intel will continue to increase its existing Ice Lake-SP-based Whitley platform shipments.